NHS ERIC 2022 – More bad news for the NHS?

As we are a week away from the anticipated publication of the NHS ERIC data for 2022, I thought I would predict what we would see from the new backlog maintenance figures. Based on the backlog maintenance returns via ERIC we have seen an average increase of 10.4% per annum, with 2019/20 seeing a significant 41.5% increase on the previous year. This increase was in a year where construction inflation was only around the 2.9% level.

This year we have seen unprecedented increases in inflation, peaking at 9.6% in June 2022, combined with some easing of Covid, allowing a number of Trusts to re-base their backlog position with in-depth six facet surveys. The effect of Covid will also have a number of Trusts thinking about the fragility of their sites over the last couple of years. All of this combined will, I predict, cause a significant increase in the backlog maintenance position of NHS England.

2022 will likely see both the first time that overall backlog of the NHS will exceed £10bn, possibly reaching as high as 12bn. More critically, this year will be the first time that the High Risk backlog will exceed £2bn. Starting off in 2011/12 as only 8% of the overall backlog position, the last 5 years high risk has made up 17% of the backlog.

ERIC Backlog Maintenance Figures year on year (2021/22 predicted)

The impact of the backlog position of the NHS means that we need more funding into the aged, retained estate to reduce the likelihood of harm. However, with budgets and the economy as it currently is, we will be asking our estates colleagues to be focusing on the key essentials of keeping the site safe the lights on and the doors open.